Siyasar Najeriya 2023: Ya Za'a Ci Zaben Shugaban Kasa Na 2023 A Najeriya? Daga Abubakar Haruna

A hakikanin gaskia zaben Najeriya wato Presidential election na 2023 na cike da kalubale kala kala saboda irin tsarin da ya kasance a ciki. Gomnati a matakin ta tayi kokari sosai wajen samun karbabben zabe na gaskia da adalci shiyasa ta sanya aka kera mata sabuwar na'ura mai suna (BVAS).

Kuma, a galibin kananan kasashe cin zaben shugaban kasa, suna amfani da mafi rinjayen kuru'u ne, wanda ya samu mafi rinjaye shi ake ayyanawa a matsayin sabon shugaban kasa.

A Najeriya abun ba haka yake ba, a tsarin (presidential system) irin namu wato tsarin shugaban kasa mai cikakken iko, dole ne dan takara ya samu kashi biyu bisa ukkun kuru'u kahin lashe zaben, hakan na nuhin dole ya samu kashi 25% a jahohi 32 kahin tabbatar da cewa yaci zabe.

Bugu da kari, a zaben bana na 2023 Nigerian Presidential election haka zaiyi wuyar samu saboda yawan yan' takarkari daga manyan yankunan kasar.

Bincike ya nuna akwai yan' takarkari 18 daga jam'iyyu daban daban kuma kusan kowane yanki nada nashi yan' takarkarin. Daga Arewa akwai mutane biyu wato da Alh. Atiku Abubakar na (PDP), Alh. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso na (NNPP). Daga yankin yarbawa kuma akwai Alh. Bola Ahmad Tinubu na jam'iyya mai ci wato (APC) da kuma yankin inyamurai (Igbo) akwai Mr. Peter Obi na (LP).

Kowane daga cikin wadannan manyan yan' takarkarin na iyayin tasiri sosai wajen zabe dukda cewa jam'iyyu biyu ne suka fi tasiri a zaben banar: APC da PDP.

A tsakanin jam'iyyar APC da PDP ne ake sanya ran gobzawa sosai saboda sune jam'iyyun da suka fi karfi a manyan yankuna na kasar kamar arewa mai jawan al'umma da kuma kudu maso yamma mai karhin tattalin arziki da masana'antu. Sauran jam'iyyu yan' bata ruwa ne ba dan asha ba, sune jam'iyyun NNPP da LP.

Yan abata ruwa badan asha ba na iya yin babbar barazana ga cikin zabe tsakanin APC da PDP.

A ka'idojin Najeriya akwai mahi karancin kuru'u da ake bukata sannan dan takara yaci zabe (minimum requirement to win), sune:

1. Dole dan takara ya skuru'u fi rinjayen kuru'un da aka kada;

2. Dole ne dan takara ya samu biyu bisa ukkun kuru'un da aka kada a jahohi 32 kuma a kowace jaha a samu karanci kashi 25%.

Idan haka bata samu ba dole aje zagaye na biyu (Second Round) tsakanin jam'iyyu biyu da suka fi yawan kuru'u tare da bin ka'idojin cin zaben iri daya dana zagayen farko. Idan a nan shima babu wanda ya cika ka'idojin dole aje zagaye na ukku wato (Third Round).

Idan Allah ya kadda za'a kai zagaye na ukku (Third Round) toh a nan zabe ne na raba gardama, anan mafi yawancin zunzurun kuru'u shine mai nasara a zaben. 

Amma a bisa hasashe APC na iya samun nasara sosai saboda wasu dalilai kamar haka:

1. Daga yankin Yarbawa (SouthWest) kenan APC ake sanya ran cinye wannan yankin;

2. Daga yankin Inyamurai kuma (SouthEast) kenan LP ake sanya ran cinye wannan zaben saboda suna da dan takara nasu;

3. Daga yankin kudu maso kudu kuma (South South), APC ake sanya zata samu rinjaye a zaben saboda sunayin APC;

4. Daga yankin Arewa ta tsakiya (North Central) itama ana sanya rai zaai kankankan tsakanin APC da PDP;

5. Daga yankin Arewa maso yamma kuma (North West) PDP zata samu gagarimin rinjaye;

6. Daga yankin Arewa maso gabas (North East) Ana iya raba daidai tsakanin PDP da APC saboda wajen akwai dan takarar shugaban kasa da dan takarar mataimakin shugaban kasa a wajen.

Allah ya zaba mana abunda yafi zama alkhairi akan mu. Amin

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